sâmbătă, iulie 30, 2005

300 bn. USD

WASHINGTON - Congress on Friday passed sweeping highway and mass transit legislation that will send nearly $300 billion to the states to build and fix roads, create thousands of new jobs and — lawmakers hope — save lives and cut hours wasted in traffic jams.

The bill "will affect every American in some way," said Sen. James Jeffords, I-Vt. "The impact of this bill will be felt for decades to come."

vineri, iulie 29, 2005

Decebalus per Scorilo

Am vazut recent columna lui Traian. Poate ar trebui spus ca ea e parte din forumul lui Traian, palatul unde acest imparat (poate cel mai important) roman isi facea meetingurile cand nu era plecat cu treaba.

Razboaiele dacice au fost campanii militare de foarte mare anvergura, probabil comparabile (evident, relativ vorbind) cu ce fac acum americanii in irak. Cheltuielile militare vor fi fost uriase, si ele nu puteau fi angajate fara sprijinul Senatului, asa ca Traian a fost obsedat de relatia sa cu cea mai importanta institutie romana. Pentru ca Traian a livrat sistematic on his promises, Senatul i'a spus "optimus" (cel mai tare din parcare).

Luptele cu daco-geto/scitii au fost grele, si victoriile promovate cu mare pompa. Mausoleul de la Adamclisi, din Dobrogea (mergeti neaparat sa'l vedeti, e emotionant!) de pilda, e o marturie a importantei acestor victorii. Scitia Minor (Dobrogea de astazi) era initial populata de un mix daco/tracic (scitic), celtic, grec si ulterior roman.

Am cumparat si citit mai multe carti, de la libraria forumului lui Traian, care descriu in detaliu columna. Sunt multe lucruri de spus, foarte interesante. O poveste: dupa primul razboi dacic, terminat la oha, romanii au studiat (ce sistematici erau oamenii astia!) cauzele prime ale pierderilor grele pe care le suferisera. S'a vazut ca una dintre probleme era aceea ca luptatorii daci despicau, cu sabiile lor scurte si groase facute dintr'un aliaj special, teasta romanilor cu o lovitura scurta in moalele capului. Asta era o tehnica specifica dacilor, asa ca inginerii romani au gasit o solutie specifica: pe castile soldatilor lor au instalat un sistem de parghii (mici bare de otel curbate) care preluau tensiunea si o disipau pe partile laterala ale capului. Efectul loviturii ucigatoare era, astfel, minimal. Asta a fost considerata o inovatie cruciala in al doilea razboi dacic.

Dacicus Maximus i s'a spus lui Traian dupa cucerirea Daciei. Dupa cum se stie, el a (re)populat Dacia (casapita dupa razboaie) cu settlersi neofiti de prin alte regiuni nou-curerite, chestia care a dus la formarea unei populatii bizare care s'a transformat, ulterior, in ciudatenia de popor roman. Stim ca a luat si multi prizonieri daci pe care i'a plimbat in lanturi in fata Senatului Roman, asa cum facea de fiecare data dupa un razboi castigat. Pe cei mai solizi i'a transformat in gladiatori ca sa faca deliciul multimilor, pe cei ramasi i'a vandut ca sclavi, cel mai probabil.

Daco-getii, neam tracic, erau o populatie veche de razboinici. Intre daci, in special, si celti (intrati in Europa prin Scitia Minor - Dobrogea de azi - si migrati apoi in vestul europei) au existat relatii economice stranse. Uitati aici cateva frumoase elemente de cultura La Tene (si vedeti, de pilda, la numarul 4, monede gasite pe teritoriul Romaniei).

Referitor la aporia privind impactul dacic in cultura/civilizatia romana, e important e de inteles ca tracii sunt considerati popor indo-european, iar etruscii (inaintasii italienilor) sunt considerati non-indo-european. Cine viziteaza Roma si mai cumpara o carte in italiana (se intelege) poate sa intre in detalii (absolut fascinante). In orice caz, acesti etrusci erau, din cate se documenteaza in prezent, un neam destept, inventatorii drumurilor pavate, apeductelor, sistemelor de canalizare care se mai vad si acum in tot nordul Italiei.

miercuri, iulie 27, 2005

Mpemba

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
The Mpemba effect is the somewhat surprising phenomenon whereby hot water can, under certain conditions, freeze faster than cold water.

The effect is named for its rediscoverer, the Tanzanian high-school student Erasto B. Mpemba. He first noticed the effect in 1963 after observing the freezing of ice cream in cookery classes, and went on to publish experimental results with Dr. Denis G. Osborne in 1969.

At first sight, the effect is contrary to Newton's law of cooling. Despite this, it has been widely reproduced in controlled experiments, although it is still poorly understood.

The effect is not universal under all experimental conditions, so its exact requirements have proved difficult to specify.

Raspuns pentru Burattino

3!/2!(3-2)! x 5!/3!(5-3)! = 30

Pardon us

Ei, da! S'a zamislit noua limba diplomatica, romleza.com. Cum se face? Se ia o fraza in romaneste, se cauta in dictionar.com echivalentul semantic, se face copy/paste si Hopla! iaca textul. In continuare, va invit sa radem cu gov.ro/english, acest Stan si Bran al webului romanesc (the subliniations are made by I). Taram, taram, taram, taram, taratatatam, taratatatam:

"The Romanian authorities are firm determinately to observe all the commitments undertaken during the negotiations where through the integration of Romania in the European Union be in progress on January 1, 2007," has assured today the Premier Calin Popescu-Tariceanu the ambassadors of the member states of the European Union, during the meeting at Victoria Palace.
"Our strategic objective is the same: to join the EU in 2007. We do not want to join in 2008, but in 2007 and we do all the efforts in this respect," specified the Premier Tariceanu during the meeting. "The reforms will continue and we intend to increase the rhythm in all areas according to the calendar. We will accord a special attention to the reform of the Judiciary System," added the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister has communicated to all the ambassadors of the EU states that, during the meeting of this week in Brussels, the Commissioners Gunter Verheugen, Olli Rehn, Neelie Kroes and Franco Frattini have appreciated the intention of the authorities to have a session of transparent consultations concerning the reforms' status from Romania. The representatives of the European Commission have appreciated this demarche as being an evidence of respect and mutual confidence.
The premier Calin Popescu-Tariceanu presented also the situation of the zones affected by the floods and has explained to them the manner in which Romania directs the allocation of the redirection funds' of the PHARE, ISPA and SAPARD programs. The floods of this year represent the biggest calamities from the last 30 years. The Government has taken already measures to assure the minimum conditions for the affected population and for the reconstruction of the vital communication connections.

marți, iulie 26, 2005

Choice (1)


Reinhard Selten: The Thought Leader Interview
by Matthias Hild and Tim Laseter
Strategy & Business
©2005 Booz Allen Hamilton Inc.

Students in a German university classroom sit contemplating a jar filled with a large, but unknown, number of coins. The professor at the front of the room asks the students to tender a silent bid for the contents of the jar by writing an offer on a sheet of paper. After examining the submissions, the professor invites the highest bidder to come forth, pay the bid, and claim the coins. Once the funds have changed hands, the professor sympathetically explains that the bid exceeded the value of the coins and that the student has fallen victim to the “winner’s curse.”

Through analysis of such experiments, Reinhard Selten, professor emeritus of economics at the University of Bonn in Germany, explores behavioral economics and game theory — fields in which he has made several decisive breakthroughs. In 1994, his groundbreaking work in game theory was honored with the Nobel Prize in Economics, which he received jointly with John C. Harsanyi and John F. Nash (the enigmatic subject of the book and film A Beautiful Mind). Professor Selten expanded upon Nash’s original concept of an equilibrium point in noncooperative games. In a “Nash equilibrium,” when players interact repeatedly over time, they start to anticipate their competitors’ future responses, perceiving each other’s possible moves as potential threats or promises. These perceptions influence players’ present behavior, and thus affect the outcome of the game — often leading players to keep their current strategies intact even if there is reason to change. In the Selten “subgame perfect equilibrium,” competitors react only to threats and promises that they perceive as credible. The winning players are those who learn to distinguish credible threats and promises from bluffing, and this process of bluffing, counter-bluffing, and discernment becomes a feature of the ongoing game. Professor Selten’s refinement of this concept has opened new avenues for analysis of predatory pricing, entry deterrence, oligopolies, and similar competitive situations.

In addition to working on the foundations of game theory, Professor Selten has applied his research to numerous high-stakes problems in business and politics. During the early years of the Cold War, he belonged to a pioneering group that developed models of nuclear deterrence under a contract with the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (which later became the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Arms Control). More recently, he worked with a group of military experts to apply game theory to the strategic analysis of the Kosovo conflict. The results were published in Zur Lösung des Kosovo-Konfliktes (Toward a Resolution of the Kosovo Conflict), a volume he edited with Erich Reiter, director-general of the Austrian Ministry of Defense (Nomos Verlag, 2003).

Professor Selten has been one of the most influential developers of the theory of “bounded rationality” as an explanation of economic activity. This theoretical paradigm was first posited by Herbert A. Simon, another Nobel Prize winner. It builds on the observation that human perception, judgment, and memory are imperfect in ways that profoundly influence our economic and organizational choices over time. Proponents of bounded rationality aim to create, as Professor Selten puts it, a “more realistic” economic theory. After all, real people do not behave like the “hyperrational” creatures posited by conventional game theory and traditional economics. They behave, instead, like the students in Professor Selten’s experiments — or like the decision makers in real organizations.

The classroom experiment demonstrating the winner’s curse illustrates the complex relationship between game theory, human intuition, and optimal decision making. The mathematical explanation for the winner’s curse, first observed in bidding for oil fields, reveals the subtle intricacies of this apparently simple game. When bids for an item are based on estimates of the item’s value, the winner is the bidder who overestimates this value the most. As more bidders enter the auction, the range of estimates increases, which in turn increases the likelihood that the highest bid will exceed the true value. Intuitively, most people bid more aggressively when faced with more bidders, but more aggressive bidding increases the chances that a bidder will fall victim to the winner’s curse.

Exploring this counterintuitive lesson, Professor Selten repeats a computerized version of the coin game multiple times with his students, offering them a chance to learn from their mistakes. Looking closely at their behavior, Professor Selten has discovered that many people, after winning and overpaying once or twice, prudently adjust their bid downward in the next round of bidding. With these lower, less competitive bids in play, the jar may go to a lucky bidder who actually manages to turn a profit. In the following round, the disappointed bidders respond with more aggressive, upwardly adjusted bids, which makes the system once again more likely to produce a winner’s curse. Such behavior demonstrates why changes in organizations and markets alike can take a long time to take root. People alter their behavior through continual feedback mechanisms — responding in each round to their experience in the previous round, but failing to discover the “optimal” yet counterintuitive strategies needed to win in the long run.

luni, iulie 25, 2005

Flash (3)

Simt in nari parfumul dulcetei de cirese amare si cand inchid ochii am in fata figura frumoasei mele matusi, tanti S. O vad prin fereastra larg deschisa, preocupandu'se de confituri in vreme ce unchiul B. se leagana, ganditor, pe balansoarul din livada.

Eu sunt in curte, am pe frunte o pereche de ochelari vechi, de motociclist, si sunt bagat pana la coate intr'un motor rablagit gasit prin garajul unui alt unchi de'ai mei.

Mai sunt copil?

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